The July 2024 Property Monitor report reveals a thriving Dubai real estate market that continues to defy seasonal expectations, supported by unprecedented transaction volumes and sustained price growth. Complementing these findings are reports from Mansion Global and Arabian Business, which further highlight the significance of Dubai's robust property market. Here’s a detailed summary:
1. Robust Property Price Growth
Dubai's property prices saw a significant increase in July 2024, with a 1.22% month-on-month (MoM) rise, bringing the average price to AED 1,397 per square foot. This represents a 13.2% increase over the previous market peak in September 2014 and a 77.9% growth since the market trough in April 2009. Such consistent price growth underscores the resilience and ongoing appeal of Dubai’s real estate sector.
2. Record-Breaking Transaction Volumes
July 2024 marked another historic month for Dubai's real estate market with 16,113 property transactions, reflecting a 12.8% increase from June and a remarkable 43.5% year-over-year (YoY) growth. This figure not only represents the highest transaction volume ever recorded for the month of July but also ranks as the second-highest monthly total in Dubai’s history. Residential properties dominated, accounting for 93.4% of these transactions.
3. Unprecedented Off-Plan Sales
The off-plan market continues to surge, with more than 10,000 off-plan homes sold in July, setting a new record for Dubai. According to Mansion Global, this spike in off-plan transactions reflects the growing confidence among investors and end-users in Dubai's real estate market. The Property Monitor report also highlights that off-plan sales accounted for 58.3% of all transactions, with this figure rising to 67.1% when accounting for registration technicalities. Emaar Properties led this segment with over 2,000 sales, primarily driven by developments like Palace Residences in Dubai Hills Estate.
4. Surge in Mortgage Transactions
Dubai’s mortgage market also saw record activity in July 2024, with 4,033 loans issued, marking a 20.2% increase from June. This represents the highest level of mortgage transactions ever recorded for July and the second-highest monthly total on record. New purchase money mortgages accounted for 53% of these loans, while refinancing and equity release activities also saw a significant rise.
5. High Absorption Rates in the Off-Plan Market
The introduction of nearly 9,000 new off-plan units in July added to an already record-breaking year, with approximately 68,000 units launched across over 220 projects. The strong absorption rates of these new developments, as highlighted in the Property Monitor report, demonstrate sustained demand and a dynamic market environment.
6. Dubai's Appeal to Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs)
Supporting the robust performance of Dubai’s real estate market is the city’s growing appeal to ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs). Arabian Business reports that Dubai is poised for a long-term influx of UHNWIs, driven by its status as a global hub for wealth and luxury. This trend is expected to fuel continued demand for luxury real estate, further supporting price growth and high transaction volumes in the coming years.
7. Anticipation of Continued Market Growth
Looking ahead, the Property Monitor report predicts sustained growth in Dubai’s real estate market throughout 2024. The gap between off-plan and completed property sales is expected to widen, driven by a robust pipeline of new projects and competitively priced inventory. The ongoing influx of UHNWIs, as reported by Arabian Business, will likely contribute to this trend, with luxury properties remaining in high demand.
8. Price Tier Dynamics
In July, the AED 1.5 million to AED 2 million price tier experienced the fastest growth, increasing by 3.5% to represent 14.5% of the market. This growth is largely attributed to the successful launches of high-quality apartments, such as those in Palace Residences and Arlo in Dubai Creek Harbour. Meanwhile, the high-end segment (properties priced over AED 3 million) saw a slight decline in market share, dropping by 3.2% MoM to represent 21.9% of the market.
9. Strong Performance of Key Developments
Dubai Hills Estate led the market for initial sales, with 10.9% of all such transactions, notably with Palace Residences accounting for 900 registrations. Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay were also among the top performers, reflecting the broad appeal and strategic importance of these master developments.
10. Rising Speculative Activity
The Property Monitor report highlights an increase in off-plan resale activity, a potential indicator of rising speculative behavior. However, the report suggests that much of this activity is concentrated on properties close to completion, which helps mitigate concerns about speculative bubbles. The robust demand and high absorption rates observed in the off-plan market indicate a healthy level of investor confidence.
11. Dynamic Price Index Performance
The Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index (DPI) rose to 195.03 in July, an increase of 2.35 points from June, marking a 17.15% YoY increase. This consistent upward movement in the DPI reflects the sustained growth in property prices across Dubai’s residential market.
12. Evolving Market Dynamics
There has been a shift in market dynamics, with the low-end price tier (properties under AED 1 million) losing market share, while the mid-tier (AED 1 million – AED 3 million) continues to dominate, accounting for nearly half of all transactions. The continued influx of UHNWIs into Dubai, as highlighted by Arabian Business, is expected to bolster the mid to high-end segments, further driving market growth.
July 2024 Property Monitor Report Conclusions
July 2024 was a landmark month for Dubai’s real estate market, with record-breaking sales and mortgage transactions, coupled with sustained price growth. The market’s resilience is further supported by Dubai’s increasing appeal to global investors and UHNWIs. As long as demand remains strong, and absorption rates continue to be high, Dubai's real estate market is set to maintain its upward trajectory well into the future. Download the full report here.
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